Market Insight
Tariff Ripple Effects
Thursday, May 8, 2025
We are reminded of Newton’s third law: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The global economy is contending with a powerful new force: tariffs. While the headline rates are easier to measure, the equal and opposite ripple effects are far more complex. A computer, for example, is built from thousands of components sourced from dozens of countries. Many of these parts cross borders multiple times before reaching the end consumer. That complexity does not cleanly translate to a new sticker price. Even if that complexity were fully transparent, it still would not be simple arithmetic.
Tariff Talk
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Although tariffs were absent from the flurry of executive orders in January, February brought new developments, with Canada, Mexico, and China now in the spotlight. While the situation remains fluid we’ll take this is as an opportunity to put tariffs into context and examine their potential impact.
Post Election Investment Playbook
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Overview
Our outlook for the markets is broadly the same as it was before Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. While the resolution of political uncertainty is a key, near-term, driver for stocks the most important outcome is simply having an outcome. As illustrated by the chart below, U.S. stocks have historically risen over the long-term regardless of which party controls the White House. As such, a disciplined long-term investment mantra remains the favored approach.
Here to Stay
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
The interesting journey of the Washington State Capital Gains Tax appears to have reached its final landing place. Washington state voters were presented with Initiative 2109 on November 5th with an opportunity to retain or repeal the new tax.
Elevator Going Down
Friday, September 20, 2024
Fed pivots
Earlier this week, the Fed announced a 50bps (basis points or 0.50%) reduction to the Fed Funds Rate, their key interest rate and primary lever for carrying out monetary policy. In his post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jay Powell also charted a course for two additional cuts this year and four more in 2025.
Buckle Up
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Here we go again
After the latest debate, the U.S. presidential election cycle is in full swing. With less than 2 months before election day, the media coverage and barrage of political advertising will continue to ramp up. Narratives seeking to correlate the results of U.S. presidential elections and stock market performance often circulate in the runup to voting day. Historically, however, financial markets have generally fared well regardless of who happens to win (* as illustrated below).
Washington State Capital Gains Tax Update & Initiative 2109
Thursday, May 9, 2024
It has now been over a year since the Washington Supreme Court upheld a law instituting a 7% tax on capital gains (i.e. profits) from the sale of assets (with some exceptions) exceeding $250,000. See our prior post here for details.
Fitch Flips the Switch
Friday, August 4, 2023
Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from AAA
The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to 'AA' and 'AAA' rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.
The Fed Presses the Pause II Button
Wednesday, June 14, 2023
Pause II
The Federal Reserve announced today a pause in their historic rate hike campaign. The Fed has increased interest rates at the last ten consecutive meetings in an effort to curb inflation. The inflation rate, as measured by the US Consumer Price Index, pushed above 9.0% late last summer and recently dropped to a more palatable 4.0%. While inflation is still well above the Fed’s long-term target (2.0%), there is a lag associated with inflation falling in response to rate hikes, suggesting the downward trend for inflation should continue even after this pause.
"NEW" WA Capital Gains Tax
Thursday, March 30, 2023
More than a year ago, the 2021 Washington State Legislature passed RCW 82.87 which creates a 7% tax on the sale or exchange of long-term capital assets such as stocks, bonds, business interests, or other investments and tangible assets. The tax took effect on January 1, 2022, and the first payments are due on or before April 18th, 2023. Revenue collected from this tax is earmarked to cover educational costs in the state of Washington.
Banking Sector Update
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
What happened?
We know that many of you are following the news regarding Silicon Valley Bank (or “SVB”) and Signature Bank. For those that haven’t heard, regulators shuttered both banks and seized deposits after growing concerns of their financial situation. Over the last couple years, those firms were flush with cash and their deposits flourished. However, following the Fed’s aggressive rate increases over the past year, those deposits shrunk at an exponential pace, forcing the banks to liquidate at a significant realized loss.
Secure Act 2.0
Friday, January 20, 2023
The SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 (“SECURE 2.0”) is chock-full of provisions – 92, in fact – aimed at improving Americans’ preparedness for retirement. Like SECURE Act 1.0 (passed December 2019), this latest round of legislation provides workers with greater access to retirement plans and further encourages retirement savings. Here are some highlights from the newly passed bill:
Midterm Elections
Thursday, October 20, 2022
Since World War II began, there have been 20 Midterm Elections (MTE) years in the United States. In every time period from the MTE to June 30th of the subsequent year, the market has been higher. A perfect 20/20. The bulk (13) have generated double digit results. So, what does that tell us?
Recession Procession
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Recessions have been at the epicenter of the biggest crashes in history so it’s understandable that investors are anxiously anticipating its arrival. Honestly, we could be in a recession right now with little statistical evidence to properly formalize its existence. For starters, the definition of a recession itself is difficult to pin down. Some market pundits claim it to be two consecutive negative GDP prints. Though incorrect, it is widely used as a placeholder.
Déjà Vu All Over Again
Monday, May 9, 2022
Yikes. Through today, the S&P 500 is down roughly 16.0% year to date. Adding insult to injury, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has risen sharply, from 1.60% at the beginning of the year to above 3.00%, causing bond prices to fall.
Four Planning Considerations Despite Legislative Limbo
Saturday, October 30, 2021
More than six months after President Biden outlined key tax policy proposals, taxpayers are still waiting for clarity on tax legislation. As of this writing, the administration’s Build Back Better Act (BBBA) remains on hold, as disagreements between the Democratic Party’s Centrists and Progressives stalled progress on both the tax legislation and the infrastructure bill (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) which has already passed the Senate. Tax negotiations could take quite a few twists and turns over the coming weeks, although taxpayers can ponder several strategies despite current legislative uncertainty.
Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
In 2017, investors around the world were captivated by the rise of Bitcoin, a digital currency decentralized from government intervention. At the time, Bitcoin was largely relegated as an asset for day traders (and apparently the laundry room of my wife's cousin). Fast forward to today, and interest from other investing parties has grown, predicating many questions. This research paper seeks to address Bitcoin’s merits and risks as an institutional-quality investment. Below, we seek to address Bitcoin’s merits and risks as an institutional-quality investment.
Potential Tax Law Changes under the Biden Presidency
Saturday, January 30, 2021
As a presidential candidate, Joe Biden laid out more than $3 trillion of tax increases to pay for an agenda ranging from expanding health care to fighting climate change. Now that the Democrats will control both houses of Congress and the White House, it’s time to focus on tax law changes they might propose. Although President-elect Joe Biden and other Democrats have proposed many changes to individual income and payroll taxes, business income taxes and individual transfer taxes, we’ll limit this commentary to those changes that would be most likely to affect our clients and are attributable to President-elect Biden.
Be Not Afraid, Part 3: Elections and Markets
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
We are one week away from what many are calling the most consequential election of our lifetimes.
End of the Beginning?
Friday, March 27, 2020
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
Music Hath Charms...
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Okay, this message has nothing to do with the markets or the C word. I assume that, like me, you’d like a short break from hearing about the Dow, social distancing, rates of infection and sheltering in place. So I thought we’d try to give ourselves some relief by turning to my favorite non-economic subject: music.
Fear Itself
Friday, March 13, 2020
We’re all familiar with the quote from President Franklin D. Roosevelt, made at his first inaugural speech in the depths of the Great Depression. But at this time, it feels right to give the whole quote: “let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”
It’s the End of the Bubble as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
After we wrote our first piece regarding the coronavirus-induced market selloff last week, the news has continued to be gloomy.
Coronavirus: Financial Pandemic or Just a Little Sniffle?
Thursday, February 27, 2020
The Coronavirus (or COVID-19, as the disease is known) is becoming a huge concern all over the world.
Talk is Cheap . . . or is it?
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
So much for the biggest stock market gains in the first half of a year since 1997. The last four days have taken a lot of the wind out of the market’s sails. This article discusses the recent drop in value of the U.S. stock market.
White Elephant
Monday, December 24, 2018
The worst December for stocks since the Great Depression. A decline in the Nasdaq of more than 20% since its high in August, dropping it into Bear territory. A loss of $1.2 trillion in value from Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Netflix and Microsoft.
Bah, Humbug.
A Matter of Trust
Friday, March 30, 2018
In today's toxic environment, how can an investor trust an advisor’s recommendation to accept some volatility in exchange for longer-term gain? How can the investor know that her advisor is looking after the investor’s best interests, when even the U.S. Court of Appeals says that the advisor doesn’t have to?
Be Not Afraid (Again): Big Market Moves are Normal
Monday, February 5, 2018
The big drops in the stock and bond markets on February 2 - 5 gave many investors scary flashbacks. But the truth is that drops like that are to be expected, not feared.
2018 Predictions (Sort Of)
Saturday, December 16, 2017
It’s time once again for eggnog, office parties, family gatherings, hotly-contested college football playoffs and financial predictions from investment advisors. Not wanting to follow the crowd, Riverview Trust Company wants to share its own insights for 2018.
The Fed and the Markets (Part 3)
Thursday, November 30, 2017
We’re looking at the effect of the Fed’s actions on the stock and bond markets. In the first installment, we looked at how the Fed promotes economic growth and price stability. In the second, we examined the way stocks and bonds are valued, and how economic factors (including those triggered by the Fed) move those values. In this final segment, we’re going to see how the Fed’s actions actually have affected the markets over the past year.
The Fed and the Markets (Part 2)
Friday, August 18, 2017
In the second installment of a three-part series, we look at how stocks and bonds are valued, and how economic factors (including those triggered by the Fed) move those values.
The Fed and the Markets (Part 1)
Friday, July 28, 2017
Everyone talks about the Fed and what it's up to, but many people are unclear about how it works and the ways it impacts the markets. The first of a three-part series
What ARE You Paying For?
Thursday, June 15, 2017
With low-cost investment houses and robo-advisers competing for your business, it's more important than ever to be clear about what you're getting for the investment management fees you're paying.
Investment Shock Absorbers
Friday, April 14, 2017
Ever ridden in a car with worn-out shock absorbers? Every bump is jarring, every corner stomach-churning, and every red light an excuse to assume the brace position. Owning an undiversified portfolio can trigger similar reactions.
Client Alert: The IRS Annual "Dirty Dozen" List of Tax Scams for 2017
Thursday, March 16, 2017
The IRS announced its 2017 "Dirty Dozen" list of tax scams today. Take a look at the enclosed links to stay up-to-date on what to watch out for when filing your own taxes this month!
Still Time to Make 2016 IRA Contributions
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Even though we just moved our clocks ahead, in the world of IRAs time stands still (at least for a little while yet), because there's still time to make a 2016 regular IRA contribution.
Don't Look Now
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
There’s so much going on these days. The stock market is rising, bond prices are dropping (sort of), emerging markets are all over the place. Portfolio-watching is becoming as big a spectator sport as football. Maybe bigger, given football’s recent television ratings. But watching your portfolio can be bad for your financial health. The more often people look at their investments, the less likely they are to take on risk.
Fiduciary Standard: Why the Objections?
Friday, January 20, 2017
There is a lot written lately about the "fiduciary standard" in investing, largely because the Department of Labor is set to impose that standard on advisors who manage retirement accounts. Essentially, it means putting the interests of another ahead of your own. This seems like it should be the undisputed goal of every investment advisor: we should always be putting our clients' interests ahead of our own. So why is the brokerage industry fighting it?
What a Difference a Day (or Two) Makes
Thursday, November 10, 2016
The Dow has increased by about 3% since the first of the month. It went up dramatically when it became clear that Clinton was going to win. It went up about the same amount when it became clear that Trump actually won. So much for predicting market moves. So what lessons can we learn from politics and the market?
Be Not Afraid: Fear, Politics and Investing
Monday, October 31, 2016
In this election season, all decisions seem to be fear-based. Each side stirs up voter fear about the other. Fear of terrorism, crime, international tension, permanent job loss. Fear of some other group (government bureaucrats, religious fanatics, illegal immigrants) taking something from us. Republicans are hunkering down against Democrats, and vice versa.