We are reminded of Newton’s third law: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The global economy is contending with a powerful new force: tariffs. While the headline rates are easier to measure, the equal and opposite ripple effects are far more complex. A computer, for example, is built from thousands of components sourced from dozens of countries. Many of these parts cross borders multiple times before reaching the end consumer. That complexity does not cleanly translate to a new sticker price. Even if that complexity were fully transparent, it still would not be simple arithmetic.
Although tariffs were absent from the flurry of executive orders in January, February brought new developments, with Canada, Mexico, and China now in the spotlight. While the situation remains fluid we’ll take this is as an opportunity to put tariffs into context and examine their potential impact.