September saw a meaningful expansion in market leadership, with emerging markets and U.S. small-cap equities stepping into the spotlight. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted a 7.15% gain for the month, outpacing developed peers and marking its ninth consecutive monthly advance. Strength was concentrated in China, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea where improving investor sentiment, favorable currency dynamics, and supportive policy environments helped drive returns. The rally was not limited to headline indices—growth-oriented segments within EM led performance, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors delivering outsized gains. This rotation suggests investors are increasingly willing to re-engage with regions that had previously lagged, reflecting a more constructive global risk appetite.
Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), a sweeping piece of tax legislation extending many provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). President Trump signed the bill into law on July 4. The legislation cements several campaign promises, makes permanent key tax cuts, and introduces new growth incentives, all while adding to already elevated deficits. The bill contains approximately $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over ten years through reductions in corporate and individual income taxes and various other related tax changes. It is expected to add more than $2 trillion to the federal deficit. To offset a portion of this cost, the bill contains $3.5 trillion in spending cuts, largely targeting federal social programs. What does this mean for taxpayers? Here’s what you need to know.
We are reminded of Newton’s third law: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The global economy is contending with a powerful new force: tariffs. While the headline rates are easier to measure, the equal and opposite ripple effects are far more complex. A computer, for example, is built from thousands of components sourced from dozens of countries. Many of these parts cross borders multiple times before reaching the end consumer. That complexity does not cleanly translate to a new sticker price. Even if that complexity were fully transparent, it still would not be simple arithmetic.
Although tariffs were absent from the flurry of executive orders in January, February brought new developments, with Canada, Mexico, and China now in the spotlight. While the situation remains fluid we’ll take this is as an opportunity to put tariffs into context and examine their potential impact.