Since World War II began, there have been 20 Midterm Elections (MTE) years in the United States. In every time period from the MTE to June 30th of the subsequent year, the market has been higher. A perfect 20/20. The bulk (13) have generated double digit results. So, what does that tell us?
Recessions have been at the epicenter of the biggest crashes in history so it’s understandable that investors are anxiously anticipating its arrival. Honestly, we could be in a recession right now with little statistical evidence to properly formalize its existence. For starters, the definition of a recession itself is difficult to pin down. Some market pundits claim it to be two consecutive negative GDP prints. Though incorrect, it is widely used as a placeholder.