Market Update
Third Quarter 2024
The third quarter was strong for seemingly all investment assets. That said, the current market rally was thrown off course in early August as investors reacted to a weaker-than-expected jobs report, fueling concerns that a stumbling labor market implied a recession may be looming. After retracing 8.5% by mid-August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs after the Federal Reserve delivered a 50 basis point rate cut (or 0.50%).
Second Quarter 2024
Growth remains positive and core inflation moderated from 3.8% to 3.3% during the quarter. The current market environment has provided room for the Federal Reserve to reduce the Fed Funds rate. This sentiment fueled the equity market and “riskier” segments of fixed income, such as high yield. Valuations have moved higher on the back of strong price movement, however this shift was mostly attributed to the concentrated top constituents.
First Quarter 2024
Defying investor expectations, the U.S. economy continues to be defined by one word: resilient. U.S. GDP has grown above 2% in each of the last six quarters and the labor market remains strong. Against this healthy economic backdrop, the equity market and “riskier” segments of fixed income pushed higher during the first quarter. Valuations have moved higher on the back of strong price movement while earnings growth has been muted. Expectations are for positive earnings growth in Q1 (3.6%) and for calendar year 2024 (11.0%) but margin pressures may be a headwind.
Fourth Quarter 2023
The “Recession of 2023” that was widely forecasted failed to materialize this year. While economic data has remained favorable, there are signals that we are not out of the woods on recession. To name a few, leading indicators remain negative on a year-over-year basis; the unemployment rate, while still low, has moved above the 12-month moving average; and monetary policy remains in restrictive territory. However, rather than trying to time a recession, we advocate for constructing resilient portfolios as market volatility and recessions are a normal part of investing.
Third Quarter 2023
The Federal Reserve paused in September, following a 25 basis points rate hike in July. The major theme coming from the meeting was the potential and willingness of the Fed to remain higher-for-longer in an effort to combat inflation and bring it to its 2% target. The resulting move in interest rates resulted in short-term pain in both fixed income and equity markets, but we may be at or near the end of the rate hiking cycle. Markets have typically fared well following the last rate hike and high-quality fixed income has historically outpaced cash in such an environment.
Second Quarter 2023
Having just come through a regional banking storm in the first quarter, markets once again persevered through additional uncertainty as political brinkmanship pushed the U.S. debt ceiling resolution to the 11th hour. This pessimism and concern were complimented by AI optimism and equity markets rallied in the last month of the quarter, fueled by large cap technology companies.